What is AA's forecasted revenue?

Alcoa Corp is forecasted to generate $12.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -7.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the AA revenue forecast model?

The model has 6.1% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.2B versus the actual $4.0B.

Alcoa Corp AA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Alcoa Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $4.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.6B across the next four quarters (-7.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 19.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.6B

-7.4% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$8.28 per $1

Training Fit

6.1% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.20B vs the actual $3.97B — an error of 19.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Alcoa Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($4.0B) came in 19% above the spending-based forecast ($3.2B). This suggests that Alcoa Corp's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.20B	$3.97B	$2.76B–$3.64B	+6.0%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.25B		$2.63B–$3.87B	+8.6%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$3.23B		$2.47B–$3.99B	-6.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.10B		$2.22B–$3.97B	-3.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.02B		$2.04B–$4.00B	-23.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Alcoa Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.977	-2.3%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.9703	-3.0%	In line with trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0084	+0.8%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0178	+1.8%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.5802x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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