Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Akamai Technologies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.6B across the next four quarters (+6.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.59B
+6.1% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.15x
SG&A Elasticity
0.21x
Training Fit
1.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.11B vs the actual $1.10B — an error of 0.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

AKAM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.11B $1.10B $1.04B–$1.18B +6.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.12B $1.04B–$1.20B +5.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.15B $1.06B–$1.24B +4.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.15B $1.05B–$1.26B +7.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.17B $1.06B–$1.30B +6.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Akamai Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0015 +0.2% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9978 -0.2% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9919 -0.8% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0159 +1.6% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

AKAM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3815x • R&D elasticity: -0.0501x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 0.8%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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