What is ALNY's forecasted revenue?

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is forecasted to generate $143.9M in FY revenue, representing +34.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ALNY revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 11.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $31M versus the actual $30M.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven primarily by SG&A spending, which yields a positive long-run impact of $0.05 of revenue per $1 spent, while R&D spending has a negative long-run impact of $-0.51 per $1. The modeling is linear, with an 11.8% MAPE and a holdout test predicting $31M for the latest quarter versus actual $30M (−4.0% error). The FY forecast calls for $144M in revenue, up 34.8% year over year, signaling meaningful top-line momentum. Outlook suggests growth hinges on SG&A leverage with R&D remaining a drag on long-run revenue, so investors should monitor spend mix and efficiency to gauge sustainability.

Investment Thesis

At 11.8% MAPE, the model captures Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.06 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$143.9M

+34.8% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$-0.51 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$0.06 per $1

Model Accuracy

11.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $31M vs the actual $30M — an error of 4.0%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2018	$31M	$30M	$25M – $37M	+95.2%	✓ In range
Q4 2018	$46M		$38M – $54M	+166.9%
Q1 2019	$18M		$8.4M – $28M	-51.9%
Q2 2019	$36M		$25M – $48M	+65.4%
Q3 2019	$44M		$31M – $57M	+46.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0985	+9.9%	+9.9% above trend	2
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.1092	+10.9%	+10.9% above trend	2
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9189	-8.1%	-8.1% below trend	4
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0195	+1.9%	In line with trend	3

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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