What is AMP's forecasted revenue?

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. is forecasted to generate $18.5B in FY revenue, representing -2.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the AMP revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.5% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.7B versus the actual $5.0B.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue drivers, per the linear model, are anchored in a strong ROI on SG&A spending: every $1 of SG&A yields $7.05 of long-run revenue. The latest quarterly revenue was $5.047 billion, and the holdout test produced a forecast of $4.7 billion versus actual $5.0 billion (6.4% error), with an in-sample MAPE of 3.5%. The full-year forecast calls for about $18 billion in revenue, down 2.3% year over year, signaling a modest near-term contraction. Overall, investors should view SG&A efficiency as a key driver of long-run revenue, while near-term growth faces headwinds despite the favorable ROI on discretionary spend.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.5% MAPE), suggesting Ameriprise Financial, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $7.05 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$18.5B

-2.3% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$7.05 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.7B vs the actual $5.0B — an error of 6.4%.

Note: Ameriprise Financial, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$4.7B	$5.0B	$4.4B – $5.0B	+1.6%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$4.7B		$4.3B – $5.1B	+4.6%
Q3 2026	$4.6B		$4.2B – $5.1B	+3.3%
Q4 2026	$4.6B		$4.0B – $5.2B	-6.1%
Q1 2027	$4.5B		$3.9B – $5.2B	-9.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ameriprise Financial, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0193	+1.9%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9841	-1.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0091	+0.9%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0154	+1.5%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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