Ast Spacemobile, Inc. ASTS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 21 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Ast Spacemobile, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $340M, a +378.8% year-over-year change, based on 21 quarters of SEC filing data.
Next FY Revenue
$339.6M
+378.8% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-595.52 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-364.35 per $1
Model Accuracy
N/A% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $52M vs the actual $54M — an error of 4.5%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $52M | $54M | $49M – $54M | +2630.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2M | $-2.5M – $4.8M | +63.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $90M | $86M – $95M | +7709.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $200M | $194M – $205M | +1254.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $49M | $43M – $54M | -10.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Ast Spacemobile, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9711 | -2.9% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.8647 | -13.5% | -13.5% below trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 4.0932 | +309.3% | +309.3% above trend | 4 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0295 | +3.0% | In line with trend | 2 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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