Ati Inc. ATI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Ati Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.9B, a +6.6% year-over-year change, based on 56 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.09x). The ARDL model has 6.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.0% MAPE), suggesting Ati Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.09x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$4.89B
+6.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.09x
Model Accuracy
6.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.2B vs the actual $1.2B — an error of 1.3%.
Note:
Ati Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.0B – $1.3B | -0.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | $1.0B – $1.5B | +4.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | $1.0B – $1.6B | +6.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | $0.9B – $1.6B | +9.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.2B | $0.9B – $1.7B | +5.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Ati Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.003 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.971 | -2.9% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0264 | +2.6% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0076 | +0.8% | In line with trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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