Bloom Energy Corporation BE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Bloom Energy Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.1B, a +51.5% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 9.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.9% MAPE, the model captures Bloom Energy Corporation's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-3.52x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$3.07B
+51.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-3.52x
SG&A Elasticity
-1.53x
Model Accuracy
9.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.8B vs the actual $0.8B — an error of 2.7%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.6B – $1.0B | +32.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.5B | $0.4B – $0.8B | +68.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $0.8B | $0.5B – $1.2B | +90.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $0.7B | $0.4B – $1.1B | +31.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.1B | $0.6B – $1.9B | +37.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Bloom Energy Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.957 | -4.3% | -4.3% below trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0763 | +7.6% | +7.6% above trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0376 | +3.8% | +3.8% above trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0107 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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