What is BK's forecasted revenue?

Bank of New York Mellon Corp is forecasted to generate $4.22B in FY revenue, representing -14.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BK revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 35.6% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.1B versus the actual $1.3B.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp BK

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is forecast to decline about 15% this year to roughly $4.2 billion, as client activity and asset-servicing fees come under pressure. Our econometric model, a long-run linear framework with fixed coefficients across ~70 quarters, links the weakness to softer activity and tighter margins; SG&A spending shows a negative ROI of about -0.94. Forecast reliability is moderate: MAPE around 35.6% and a holdout miss near 15% (predicted ~1.1B vs actual ~1.3B). Key risk: further declines in market activity or ongoing fee pressure could worsen revenue and SG&A inefficiency would curb any margin recovery if volumes stabilize.

Investment Thesis

At 35.6% MAPE, the model captures Bank of New York Mellon Corp's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.

Next FY Revenue

$4.22B

-14.6% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$-0.94 per $1

Model Accuracy

35.6% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.3B — an error of 14.9%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Note: Bank of New York Mellon Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.1B	$1.3B	$-0.3B – $2.6B	-4.1%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.2B		$-0.9B – $3.2B	+0.8%
Q3 2026	$1.1B		$-1.4B – $3.6B	-7.6%
Q4 2026	$0.9B		$-1.9B – $3.8B	-23.2%
Q1 2027	$1.0B		$-2.2B – $4.2B	-26.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Bank of New York Mellon Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0572	+5.7%	+5.7% above trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9214	-7.9%	-7.9% below trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.914	-8.6%	-8.6% below trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0383	+3.8%	+3.8% above trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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