Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

We forecast Berkshire Hathaway’s FY revenue at about $381 billion, up roughly 2.6% year over year, reflecting steady, diversified growth across the portfolio rather than a single growth engine. Our econometric model shows SG&A has a high pass-through to revenue—about 0.97x—so a 1% SG&A uptick lifts revenue roughly 1%, with time-varying estimates showing sensitivity rising toward the mid-0.7x range. Our econometric model uses a log-log specification with 69 quarters of data and time-varying coefficients; forecast accuracy is solid, with a 2.7% MAPE and a -3.0% holdout miss (predicted $97.1B vs $94.2B). Key risk: Berkshire’s results depend on insurance underwriting cycles and investment income volatility; an outsized downturn in markets or worse-than-expected claims could swing actuals away from the forecast.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Berkshire Hathaway Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.97x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$381.3B
+2.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.97x
Model Accuracy
2.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $97B vs the actual $94B — an error of 3.0%.
Note: Berkshire Hathaway Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

BRK.B Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $97B $94B $88B – $107B +2.3% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $93B $84B – $104B +4.0%
Q3 2026 $95B $85B – $106B +2.5%
Q4 2026 $95B $85B – $107B +0.2%
Q1 2027 $98B $87B – $110B +4.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Berkshire Hathaway Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0046 +0.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9971 -0.3% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9946 -0.5% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0178 +1.8% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

BRK.B Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 69 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity means each percent of additional spending more readily drives revenue than before.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7425x
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (3.0% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.984), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.