What is BWXT's forecasted revenue?

Bwx Technologies, Inc. is forecasted to generate $4.37B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +24.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BWXT revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.9B versus the actual $0.9B.

Bwx Technologies, Inc. BWXT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Bwx Technologies, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $902M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.4B across the next four quarters (+24.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$4.37B

+24.5% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$12.09 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$8.76 per $1

Training Fit

3.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $935.7M vs the actual $901.6M — an error of 3.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$935.7M	$901.6M	$884.0M–$987.4M	+22.5%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$1.04B		$964.1M–$1.11B	+19.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.06B		$975.2M–$1.15B	+20.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.11B		$1.01B–$1.21B	+28.9%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.16B		$1.05B–$1.28B	+29.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Bwx Technologies, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9827	-1.7%	In line with trend	12
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0159	+1.6%	In line with trend	11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9807	-1.9%	In line with trend	11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0178	+1.8%	In line with trend	11

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 50 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2699x • R&D elasticity: 0.0683x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch