Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +2.0% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($17.06 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $17.06 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$12.2B
+2.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$17.06 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.0B — an error of 0.8%.
Note:
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $3.0B | $2.8B – $3.1B | +4.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.0B | $2.8B – $3.1B | +4.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | $2.9B – $3.3B | +0.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.1B | $2.9B – $3.3B | +2.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.0B | $2.8B – $3.3B | +1.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9981 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0008 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9906 | -0.9% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0331 | +3.3% | +3.3% above trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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