Centene Corporation CNC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Centene Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $44.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $215B across the next four quarters (+20.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$215.4B
+20.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$12.64 per $1
Training Fit
3.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $49.46B vs the actual $44.38B — an error of 11.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Centene Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CNC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $49.46B $44.38B $42.53B–$57.51B +16.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $51.07B $42.84B–$60.88B +13.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $51.87B $42.34B–$63.53B +16.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $53.94B $42.56B–$68.36B +20.8%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $58.52B $44.15B–$77.57B +31.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Centene Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0067 +0.7% In line with trend 11
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0218 +2.2% In line with trend 10
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0056 +0.6% In line with trend 10
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9827 -1.7% In line with trend 10

Spending and Revenue

CNC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.3658x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 11.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 42 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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