Corpay, Inc. CPAY
Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Corpay, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.0B, a +9.8% year-over-year change, based on 57 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($3.70 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Corpay, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (3.0% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.70 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$4.97B
+9.8% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.70 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.2B vs the actual $1.2B — an error of 6.3%.
Note:
Corpay, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B – $1.2B | +13.1% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | $1.1B – $1.2B | +17.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | $1.1B – $1.3B | +10.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.4B | +8.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.3B | $1.2B – $1.4B | +4.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Corpay, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0139 | +1.4% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0004 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9863 | -1.4% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0179 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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