Copart, Inc. CPRT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Copart, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.3B, a -6.5% year-over-year change, based on 49 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.4% MAPE), suggesting Copart, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$4.35B
-6.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-2.16x
Model Accuracy
4.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.2B vs the actual $1.1B — an error of 4.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Copart, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.1B – $1.3B | +2.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | $1.0B – $1.3B | -2.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | $0.9B – $1.3B | -7.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.1B | $0.9B – $1.3B | -7.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.0B | $0.8B – $1.3B | -9.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Copart, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9625 | -3.7% | -3.7% below trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.993 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.027 | +2.7% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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