Carpenter Technology Corp CRS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Carpenter Technology Corp has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.1B, a +9.8% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.06x). The ARDL model has 6.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.1% MAPE), suggesting Carpenter Technology Corp's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.06x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$3.15B
+9.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.06x
Model Accuracy
6.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $716B vs the actual $728B — an error of 1.6%.
Note:
Carpenter Technology Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $716B | $728B | $610B – $840B | -0.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $753B | $601B – $944B | +11.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $773B | $586B – $1020B | +6.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $788B | $572B – $1085B | +7.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $833B | $583B – $1192B | +14.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Carpenter Technology Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9855 | -1.5% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9802 | -2.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0281 | +2.8% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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