What is ED's forecasted revenue?

Consolidated Edison, Inc. is forecasted to generate $18.2B in FY revenue, representing +7.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ED revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 1.9% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.9B versus the actual $4.0B.

Consolidated Edison, Inc. ED

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is expected to grow roughly 7% year over year to about $19.5 billion, supported by structural/platform growth and ongoing investments in operating capabilities. Binding constraint: regulatory approvals and the timing of rate-case cycles for rate-base investments limit how quickly SG&A-driven spending can translate into revenue. Our econometric model shows elasticities are high and rising, meaning incremental SG&A and capital deployment tend to magnify top-line gains. Current attribution assigns about 8% to structural/platform growth and roughly 92% to SG&A-driven expansion, implying the growth engine remains investment-led rather than product- or capacity-constrained. Key risk: delays or tightening outcomes in regulatory approvals for rate-base investments could cap upside even as demand remains robust.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Consolidated Edison, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.82x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$18.2B

+7.3% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.82x

Model Accuracy

1.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.9B vs the actual $4.0B — an error of 2.2%.

Note: Consolidated Edison, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3.9B	$4.0B	$3.7B – $4.1B	+6.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$5.1B		$4.8B – $5.5B	+7.3%
Q3 2026	$3.9B		$3.6B – $4.3B	+9.4%
Q4 2026	$4.9B		$4.4B – $5.4B	+7.1%
Q1 2027	$4.2B		$3.8B – $4.7B	+5.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Consolidated Edison, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0086	+0.9%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9928	-0.7%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9977	-0.2%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0005	+0.1%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 65 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity means each percent of additional spending more readily drives revenue than before.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.2767x

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