What is EIX's forecasted revenue?

Edison International is forecasted to generate $19.1B in FY revenue, representing -1.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EIX revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 7.1% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $4.4B versus the actual $5.2B.

Edison International EIX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is expected to decline about 1.4% year over year, coming in near $19.1 billion, with only modest near-term growth as macro headwinds offset the structural/platform uplift. Our econometric model signals the binding constraint on revenue growth is delivery capacity—the grid and related service operations; without the ability to physically deliver and monetize SG&A-driven investments, upside is capped. Time-varying analysis shows the SG&A multiplier has risen from roughly 0.10 to about 0.60, indicating incremental SG&A spending now generates meaningfully more topline growth. The key risk is regulatory rate-case timing and permitting pace, which governs cost recovery and capex monetization and could throttle expected upside.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.1% MAPE), suggesting Edison International's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.79 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$19.1B

-1.4% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$0.79 per $1

Model Accuracy

7.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.4B vs the actual $5.2B — an error of 14.6%.

Note: Edison International does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$4.4B	$5.2B	$3.8B – $5.1B	+11.7%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$3.9B		$2.9B – $4.8B	+1.1%
Q3 2026	$4.8B		$3.7B – $5.9B	+5.0%
Q4 2026	$5.8B		$4.5B – $7.1B	+0.5%
Q1 2027	$4.7B		$3.2B – $6.1B	-10.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Edison International's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.067	+6.7%	+6.7% above trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9957	-0.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0058	+0.6%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.987	-1.3%	In line with trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 70 quarters. A rising multiplier means each dollar of spending drives more revenue over time, signaling improving efficiency. A falling multiplier can indicate market saturation or rising cost-to-acquire.
Current SG&A multiplier: 0.5862

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