Equity Residential EQR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Equity Residential has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.3B, a -16.4% year-over-year change, based on 47 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($60.01 per $1). The ARDL model has 15.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 15.1% MAPE, the model captures Equity Residential's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $60.01 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$2.28B
-16.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$60.01 per $1
Model Accuracy
15.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $607B vs the actual $682B — an error of 11.0%.
Note:
Equity Residential does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | $607B | $682B | $469B – $745B | -8.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q3 2020 | $584B | $388B – $779B | -12.8% | ||
| Q4 2020 | $583B | $344B – $823B | -14.8% | ||
| Q1 2021 | $576B | $300B – $853B | -15.7% | ||
| Q2 2021 | $532B | $223B – $841B | -22.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Equity Residential's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0411 | +4.1% | +4.1% above trend | 11 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0503 | +5.0% | +5.0% above trend | 11 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.985 | -1.5% | In line with trend | 11 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0334 | +3.3% | +3.3% above trend | 10 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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