What is ES's forecasted revenue?

Eversource Energy is forecasted to generate $15.5B in FY revenue, representing +14.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ES revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.3% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.4B versus the actual $3.4B.

Eversource Energy ES

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Eversource’s revenue is forecast to grow about 14% year over year, reaching roughly $17.7 billion, as rate-base expansion supports the top line and operating leverage adds to the growth trajectory, with structural growth running around 3%. Binding constraint: regulatory capex approvals and the cadence of rate cases that govern allowed capital investments and returns—the speed at which capital translates into higher revenue is the true limiter. Our econometric model shows structural/platform growth of about 3% and SG&A-driven expansion accounting for the rest; the SG&A multiplier has declined from 0.95 to 0.91, signaling improving operating leverage and revenue generation beyond incremental spending. Key risk: regulatory delays or capex execution risk could throttle rate-base growth and limit earnings upside.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Eversource Energy's revenue with exceptional precision (2.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.26 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$15.5B

+14.4% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$1.26 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.4B vs the actual $3.4B — an error of 0.0%.

Note: Eversource Energy does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3.4B	$3.4B	$3.1B – $3.6B	+13.4%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$4.6B		$4.2B – $5.0B	+11.4%
Q3 2026	$3.3B		$3.0B – $3.5B	+14.6%
Q4 2026	$3.7B		$3.4B – $4.1B	+16.1%
Q1 2027	$3.9B		$3.6B – $4.3B	+16.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Eversource Energy's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0029	+0.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0028	+0.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9999	-0.0%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0057	+0.6%	In line with trend	14

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 62 quarters. A rising multiplier means each dollar of spending drives more revenue over time, signaling improving efficiency. A falling multiplier can indicate market saturation or rising cost-to-acquire.
Current SG&A multiplier: 0.9057

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (0.0% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.988), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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