Energy Transfer Lp ET

Energy Transfer posted FY revenue of $90 billion, up 4.8% YoY. In our econometric model, SG&A elasticity is 1.36x, implying growth is driven more by SG&A spending—expansion and commercial investments—than by price or volume alone. The holdout underpredicted by about 18.8% (predicted $20.6B vs actual $25.3B), and with a 15.4% MAPE, that gap signals limited forecast reliability; the model misses drivers like project timing and throughput mix. With a high SG&A elasticity, margins could be at risk if investments don’t translate into proportional throughput growth or tariff-based revenue. The growth-rate trajectory therefore exposes execution, capital allocation, and regulatory risk—delays on asset additions or higher financing costs could cap upside even as the core fee-based model remains steadier.