What is EVRG's forecasted revenue?

Evergy, Inc. is forecasted to generate $5.92B in FY revenue, representing -0.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EVRG revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.7% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.5B versus the actual $1.3B.

Evergy, Inc. EVRG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Evergy’s revenue is forecast to be essentially flat for the coming year, down about 0.6% year over year, with a modest structural/platform lift offset by higher SG&A-driven topline activity. The binding constraint on growth is regulatory capex approvals and rate-case cadence—Evergy can only grow revenue as regulators authorize grid investments and allow corresponding rate recovery. In our econometric model, roughly 19% of growth comes from structural/platform expansion and about 81% from SG&A spending, with the SG&A impact strengthening as the spend becomes more productive. Time-varying analysis shows the SG&A multiplier has risen, indicating incremental SG&A spend now yields more topline per dollar. Key risk is regulatory timing and outcomes for capex approvals, which could cap revenue growth even if spending accelerates.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Evergy, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.25 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$5.92B

-0.6% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$1.25 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.5B vs the actual $1.3B — an error of 8.7%.

Note: Evergy, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.5B	$1.3B	$1.2B – $1.8B	+15.8%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.4B		$1.1B – $1.8B	+3.4%
Q3 2026	$1.4B		$1.2B – $1.8B	+0.6%
Q4 2026	$1.6B		$1.3B – $2.0B	-12.1%
Q1 2027	$1.5B		$1.2B – $1.8B	+9.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Evergy, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0537	+5.4%	+5.4% above trend	8
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9949	-0.5%	In line with trend	8
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.984	-1.6%	In line with trend	7
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9821	-1.8%	In line with trend	7

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 34 quarters. A rising multiplier means each dollar of spending drives more revenue over time, signaling improving efficiency. A falling multiplier can indicate market saturation or rising cost-to-acquire.
Current SG&A multiplier: 1.759

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (8.7% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.853), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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