What is EXE's forecasted revenue?

Expand Energy Corporation is forecasted to generate $10.1B in FY revenue, representing -16.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EXE revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 36.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.9B versus the actual $3.3B.

Expand Energy Corporation EXE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by SG&A spending, which the model assumes generates $19.50 in long-run revenue for every $1 spent, indicating strong efficiency outside R&D. The linear model predicting quarterly revenue yields a MAPE of 36.4% and a holdout error of about 10.5%, suggesting limited predictive reliability despite the SG&A leverage. The latest quarter posted $3.272 billion in revenue, while the FY forecast is about $10 billion, implying a -16.5% year-over-year decline and weaker top-line momentum. Investors should weigh the attractive SG&A efficiency against the forecasted slowdown and model uncertainty when evaluating EXE’s outlook.

Investment Thesis

At 36.4% MAPE, the model captures Expand Energy Corporation's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $19.50 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$10.1B

-16.5% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$19.50 per $1

Model Accuracy

36.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.9B vs the actual $3.3B — an error of 10.5%.

Note: Expand Energy Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.9B	$3.3B	$1.2B – $4.6B	+46.4%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.7B		$0.3B – $5.1B	+24.3%
Q3 2026	$2.6B		$-0.4B – $5.5B	-30.7%
Q4 2026	$2.5B		$-1.0B – $5.9B	-17.2%
Q1 2027	$2.4B		$-1.4B – $6.2B	-27.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Expand Energy Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0024	+0.2%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.1142	+11.4%	+11.4% above trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9717	-2.8%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.8858	-11.4%	-11.4% below trend	16

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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