What is EXPD's forecasted revenue?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is forecasted to generate $13.7B in FY revenue, representing +24.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EXPD revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 4.9% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.0B versus the actual $2.9B.

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is forecast to rise about 24% year over year, lifting FY revenue from $13.7 billion to roughly $17.0 billion as demand for Expeditors’ global logistics solutions remains robust. Our econometric model shows the binding constraint on growth is delivery capacity in Expeditors’ logistics network—the carrier capacity, staffing, and facilities needed to scale higher volumes. Current growth attribution is heavily SG&A-driven (about 97% of the lift) with structural/platform growth at 3% and R&D contributing essentially nothing. Key risk is a capacity constraint: if the network cannot scale with SG&A investment, volume growth may underperform and margin upside could be limited, especially in the face of possible freight-market volatility or regulatory shifts.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.9% MAPE), suggesting Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.16x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$13.7B

+24.2% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.16x

Model Accuracy

4.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $2.9B — an error of 5.9%.

Note: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$3.0B	$2.9B	$2.6B – $3.5B	+2.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$3.2B		$2.7B – $3.7B	+18.9%
Q3 2026	$3.3B		$2.9B – $3.9B	+25.8%
Q4 2026	$3.6B		$3.1B – $4.2B	+24.3%
Q1 2027	$3.6B		$3.1B – $4.3B	+27.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0172	+1.7%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0243	+2.4%	In line with trend	17
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9612	-3.9%	-3.9% below trend	16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0194	+1.9%	In line with trend	17

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 70 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity means each percent of additional spending more readily drives revenue than before.
Current SG&A elasticity: 2.2609x

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (5.9% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.963), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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