Expedia Group, Inc. EXPE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Expedia Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $16.0B across the next four quarters (+1.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$16.0B
+1.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.74 per $1
Training Fit
7.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.91B vs the actual $4.32B — an error of 9.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Expedia Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

EXPE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.91B $4.32B $3.54B–$4.28B +3.2% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.38B $3.86B–$4.91B -0.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.84B $3.20B–$4.48B +8.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.69B $2.95B–$4.43B +7.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.09B $3.26B–$4.92B -5.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Expedia Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9872 -1.3% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9999 -0.0% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0244 +2.4% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9703 -3.0% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

EXPE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2927x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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