Extra Space Storage Inc. EXR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Extra Space Storage Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.8B, a +11.3% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.31x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.1% MAPE), suggesting Extra Space Storage Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.31x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$3.76B
+11.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.31x
Model Accuracy
3.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $882B vs the actual $857B — an error of 2.8%.
Note:
Extra Space Storage Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $882B | $857B | $784B – $992B | +7.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $905B | $766B – $1069B | +10.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $928B | $757B – $1138B | +10.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $951B | $751B – $1204B | +10.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $974B | $749B – $1268B | +13.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Extra Space Storage Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0151 | +1.5% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9928 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9737 | -2.6% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9949 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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