What is FN's forecasted revenue?

Fabrinet is forecasted to generate $4.16B in FY revenue, representing +9.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FN revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 6.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.0B versus the actual $1.1B.

Fabrinet FN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Latest quarter revenue is $1.13 billion, informed by 47 quarters of history used to fit a log-log model. Revenue is driven by SG&A with an elasticity of 1.39, so a 1% increase in SG&A is linked to a 1.39% rise in revenue, implying a favorable ROI on SG&A investments under current dynamics. Model results show modest accuracy (MAPE 6.4%), with a holdout error of 11.3% (predicted $1.0B vs actual $1.1B), indicating forecasting risk. The FY forecast calls for $4.2B in revenue, about +9.1% year over year, signaling solid growth prospects contingent on maintaining SG&A-driven revenue momentum and the model’s assumptions.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.4% MAPE), suggesting Fabrinet's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.39x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$4.16B

+9.1% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.39x

Model Accuracy

6.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.0B vs the actual $1.1B — an error of 11.3%.

Note: Fabrinet does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.0B	$1.1B	$0.9B – $1.2B	+24.9%	✓ In range
Q1 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.3B	+19.5%
Q2 2026	$1.0B		$0.8B – $1.4B	+18.3%
Q3 2026	$1.1B		$0.8B – $1.5B	+7.7%
Q4 2026	$1.1B		$0.8B – $1.6B	-4.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Fabrinet's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0302	+3.0%	+3.0% above trend	14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9863	-1.4%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0099	+1.0%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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