What is FTAI's forecasted revenue?

Ftai Aviation Ltd. is forecasted to generate $2.74B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -11.9% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the FTAI revenue forecast model?

The model has 31.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.6B versus the actual $1.0B.

Ftai Aviation Ltd. FTAI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ftai Aviation Ltd.'s latest quarterly revenue is $953M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.7B across the next four quarters (-11.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 35.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$2.74B

-11.9% YoY

G&A Elasticity

0.47x

Training Fit

31.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $612.6M vs the actual $953.1M — an error of 35.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Ftai Aviation Ltd. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($953M) came in 36% above the spending-based forecast ($613M). This suggests that Ftai Aviation Ltd.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$612.6M	$953.1M	$222.0M–$1.69B	-9.4%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$487.9M		$157.1M–$1.52B	-26.9%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$678.8M		$216.2M–$2.13B	+2.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$962.3M		$297.0M–$3.12B	+15.8%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$614.4M		$159.8M–$2.36B	-35.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ftai Aviation Ltd.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.8821	-11.8%	-11.8% below trend	13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	0.984	-1.6%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.1177	+11.8%	+11.8% above trend	12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9974	-0.3%	In line with trend	12

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 50 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 1.3039x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -35.7%.

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