General Dynamics Corporation GD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
General Dynamics Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $55B, a +5.5% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.41x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.5% MAPE), suggesting General Dynamics Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.41x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$55.4B
+5.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.41x
Model Accuracy
3.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $14B vs the actual $14B — an error of 4.9%.
Note:
General Dynamics Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $14B | $14B | $12B – $15B | +2.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $13B | $12B – $15B | +9.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $14B | $12B – $16B | +6.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $14B | $11B – $17B | +7.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $14B | $12B – $18B | -0.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture General Dynamics Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0053 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0338 | +3.4% | +3.4% above trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9714 | -2.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.994 | -0.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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