Hca Healthcare, Inc. HCA
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Hca Healthcare, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $83B, a +10.2% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($63.49 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Hca Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $63.49 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$83.3B
+10.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$63.49 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $20B vs the actual $20B — an error of 0.6%.
Note:
Hca Healthcare, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $20B | $20B | $19B – $21B | +7.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $20B | $19B – $21B | +9.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $21B | $19B – $22B | +10.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $21B | $19B – $23B | +10.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $22B | $20B – $24B | +10.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Hca Healthcare, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9948 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0214 | +2.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.999 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0044 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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