The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. HIG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 29 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $111M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $1.7B across the next four quarters (+33.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 420.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$1.70B
+33.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-4.51x
Training Fit
50.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $577.5M vs the actual $111.0M — an error of 420.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($0.1B) came in 420% below the spending-based forecast ($0.6B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

HIG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $577.5M $111.0M $148.6M–$2.25B +425.0% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $721.5M $105.8M–$4.92B +86.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $466.3M $44.4M–$4.90B +20.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $178.8M $11.8M–$2.70B -54.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $332.1M $15.9M–$6.91B +199.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0054 +0.5% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.8722 -12.8% -12.8% below trend 6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.982 -1.8% In line with trend 6
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.7257 -27.4% -27.4% below trend 6

Spending and Revenue

HIG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 29 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 4.3573x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 29 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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