What is HLT's forecasted revenue?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. is forecasted to generate $10.3B in FY revenue, representing -14.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HLT revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 13.7% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.9B versus the actual $3.1B.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by demand and pricing dynamics across its global hotel portfolio, with occupancy and average daily rate shaping top-line growth. The model estimates a strong ROI on SG&A, with $1 of SG&A generating $21.79 in long-run revenue, suggesting marketing and administrative investments are highly efficient revenue drivers. The modeling shows reasonable short-term reliability, with a holdout prediction of $2.9B versus actual $3.1B (5.0% error) and an overall MAPE of 13.7%. The FY revenue forecast is about $10B, down 14.8% year over year, signaling near-term headwinds but potential for a rebound as travel demand normalizes.

Investment Thesis

At 13.7% MAPE, the model captures Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $21.79 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$10.3B

-14.8% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$21.79 per $1

Model Accuracy

13.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.9B vs the actual $3.1B — an error of 5.0%.

Note: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.9B	$3.1B	$2.3B – $3.5B	+5.4%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.8B		$1.9B – $3.6B	+2.3%
Q3 2026	$2.6B		$1.6B – $3.7B	-16.3%
Q4 2026	$2.5B		$1.3B – $3.7B	-20.0%
Q1 2027	$2.4B		$1.0B – $3.8B	-22.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0534	+5.3%	+5.3% above trend	12
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0041	+0.4%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9415	-5.8%	-5.8% below trend	12
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.1104	+11.0%	+11.0% above trend	12

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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