Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 22 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Robinhood Markets, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $4.9B, a +9.6% year-over-year change, based on 22 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 10.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 10.5% MAPE, the model captures Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.
Next FY Revenue
$4.90B
+9.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-3.17x
Model Accuracy
10.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.2B vs the actual $1.3B — an error of 3.5%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Robinhood Markets, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.0B – $1.6B | +22.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | $0.8B – $1.7B | +26.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | $0.8B – $1.9B | +27.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.3B | $0.8B – $2.1B | -0.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.2B | $0.7B – $2.1B | -5.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9829 | -1.7% | In line with trend | 5 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9805 | -1.9% | In line with trend | 5 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0644 | +6.4% | +6.4% above trend | 4 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0012 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 5 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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