Intuit Inc. INTU

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Intuit Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.4B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $24.9B across the next four quarters (+16.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$24.9B
+16.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.62x
SG&A Elasticity
1.09x
Training Fit
7.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $4.64B vs the actual $4.35B — an error of 6.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

INTU Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-31		 $4.64B $4.35B $3.79B–$5.69B +21.1% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $4.33B $3.25B–$5.77B +11.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $5.26B $3.70B–$7.48B +13.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-30		 $9.73B $6.48B–$14.61B +13.7%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-31		 $5.61B $3.56B–$8.84B +28.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Intuit Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Aug–Oct) 1.0197 +2.0% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Nov–Jan) 1.006 +0.6% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Feb–Apr) 1.0146 +1.5% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (May–Jul) 0.977 -2.3% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

INTU Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.6092x • R&D elasticity: -0.752x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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