Jpmorgan Chase & Co JPM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is projected to decline modestly year over year, about 1%, to roughly $93.5 billion. The softness reflects that growth comes more from platform scale, pricing power, and recurring revenue than incremental SG&A spending, with SG&A elasticity moving toward negative, indicating rising operating leverage. Our econometric model, with time-varying coefficients across 70 quarters, delivers a forecast with a 5.8% MAPE and a holdout error near 4% (predicted about $24B vs actual $25B). Key risk is the macro environment and rate path, since a sharper pullback in interest income or capital-market activity could push revenue meaningfully below the forecast.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.8% MAPE), suggesting Jpmorgan Chase & Co's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.02x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$94.4B
-1.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.02x
Model Accuracy
5.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $24B vs the actual $25B — an error of 3.9%.
Note: Jpmorgan Chase & Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

JPM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $24B $25B $18B – $32B +2.9% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $24B $17B – $33B +2.8%
Q3 2026 $24B $16B – $35B +2.2%
Q4 2026 $23B $15B – $37B -2.5%
Q1 2027 $23B $14B – $40B -6.6%
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Latest Earnings Call

Q4 2025
Chief Financial Officer JPMorganChase

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. This quarter, the Firm reported net income of $13 billion and EPS of $4.63, with an ROTCE of 18%. These results included the previously announced reserve build of $2.2 billion in CCB related to the forward purchase commitment of the Apple Card portfolio. Revenue of $46.8 billion was up 7% year-on-year on higher Markets …

View full transcript → 120 sections · 12189 words

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Jpmorgan Chase & Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0187 +1.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0042 +0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.992 -0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.994 -0.6% In line with trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

JPM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 70 quarters. A falling elasticity means the company needs less incremental spending to sustain growth — a hallmark of operating leverage from platform scale, pricing power, or recurring-revenue streams. A rising elasticity means each percent of additional spending more readily drives revenue than before.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.3605x
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (-3.9% error vs ARDL, R² = 0.874), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.