What is KHC's forecasted revenue?

Kraft Heinz Co is forecasted to generate $23.7B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -4.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the KHC revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $6.1B versus the actual $6.3B.

Kraft Heinz Co KHC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Kraft Heinz Co's latest quarterly revenue is $6.3B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $23.7B across the next four quarters (-4.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$23.7B

-4.7% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

-0.01x

Training Fit

2.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.15B vs the actual $6.26B — an error of 1.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Note: Kraft Heinz Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-27	$6.15B	$6.26B	$5.35B–$7.07B	-3.2%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-27	$6.02B		$5.44B–$6.66B	-3.5%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-27	$5.96B		$5.36B–$6.63B	-6.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-27	$5.90B		$5.27B–$6.62B	-2.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-27	$5.85B		$4.82B–$7.10B	-6.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Kraft Heinz Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9806	-1.9%	In line with trend	10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0072	+0.7%	In line with trend	9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9868	-1.3%	In line with trend	9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0286	+2.9%	In line with trend	9

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0048x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -1.8%.

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