Kimco Realty Corporation KIM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Kimco Realty Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.3B, a +5.9% year-over-year change, based on 60 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($8.11 per $1). The ARDL model has 6.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.5% MAPE), suggesting Kimco Realty Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $8.11 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$2.27B
+5.9% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$8.11 per $1
Model Accuracy
6.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $546B vs the actual $542B — an error of 0.6%.
Note:
Kimco Realty Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $546B | $542B | $496B – $596B | +3.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $559B | $488B – $629B | +4.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $564B | $478B – $650B | +7.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $569B | $469B – $669B | +6.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $575B | $463B – $686B | +5.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Kimco Realty Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9797 | -2.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.01 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0122 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9794 | -2.1% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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