Leidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.5B for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $18.5B across the next four quarters (+5.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$18.5B
+5.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.79x
Training Fit
1.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $4.35B vs the actual $4.55B — an error of 4.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Leidos Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

LDOS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-03		 $4.35B $4.55B $4.14B–$4.56B +2.7% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-03		 $4.65B $4.34B–$4.98B +4.5%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-03		 $4.55B $4.18B–$4.95B +8.4%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-03		 $4.64B $4.20B–$5.11B +5.8%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-03		 $4.63B $4.15B–$5.17B +1.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9955 -0.5% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0001 +0.0% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0119 +1.2% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0056 +0.6% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

LDOS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 42 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1245x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 42 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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