Lennar Corp /New/ LEN
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Lennar Corp /New/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $38B, a +11.4% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.08x). The ARDL model has 9.0% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.0% MAPE, the model captures Lennar Corp /New/'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.08x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$38.1B
+11.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.08x
Model Accuracy
9.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.8B vs the actual $9.4B — an error of 16.4%.
Note:
Lennar Corp /New/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($9.4B) came in 16% above the spending-based forecast ($7.8B). This suggests that Lennar Corp /New/'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $7.8B | $9.4B | $6.2B – $9.9B | -21.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $9.4B | $6.8B – $13B | +23.8% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $9.7B | $6.5B – $14B | +15.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $9.0B | $5.7B – $14B | +2.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $10.0B | $5.9B – $17B | +6.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Lennar Corp /New/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9673 | -3.3% | -3.3% below trend | 19 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0177 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9928 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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