What is LITE's forecasted revenue?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is forecasted to generate $2.45B in FY revenue, representing +20.8% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the LITE revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 8.3% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $561B versus the actual $666B.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 46 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Lumentum Holdings Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.4B, a +20.8% year-over-year change, based on 46 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($20.57 per $1) and SG&A ($3.71 per $1). The ARDL model has 8.3% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 8.3% MAPE, the model captures Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $20.57 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.71 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$2.45B

+20.8% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$20.57 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$3.71 per $1

Model Accuracy

8.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $561B vs the actual $666B — an error of 15.8%.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($666M) came in 16% above the spending-based forecast ($561M). This suggests that Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$561B	$666B	$488B – $633B	+66.4%	✗ Outside range
Q1 2026	$600B		$498B – $703B	+49.2%
Q2 2026	$592B		$466B – $718B	+39.2%
Q3 2026	$620B		$474B – $765B	+16.1%
Q4 2026	$636B		$474B – $799B	-4.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0789	+7.9%	+7.9% above trend	12
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9915	-0.9%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9499	-5.0%	-5.0% below trend	11
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0164	+1.6%	In line with trend	7

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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