What is LMT's forecasted revenue?

Lockheed Martin Corporation is forecasted to generate $45.8B in FY revenue, representing +1.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the LMT revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $11B versus the actual $12B.

Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 16 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

We expect Lockheed Martin’s FY revenue to grow about 1% year over year to roughly $46.3 billion, with the uplift anchored in platform-scale programs and pricing power within the defense mix. The binding constraint on revenue growth is delivery capacity to fulfill the sizable program backlog and to ramp multi-year production without bottlenecks in manufacturing, supply chains, or labor. In our econometric model, structural/platform growth accounts for about 73% of the projected rise, while SG&A efficiency adds incremental lift and R&D spend remains negligible. Key risk: execution delays on large, multi-year programs or supplier disruptions could cap upside and extend lead times.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Lockheed Martin Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.70 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$45.8B

+1.0% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$0.70 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $12B — an error of 0.7%.

Note: Lockheed Martin Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2013	$11B	$12B	$10B – $13B	-5.3%	✓ In range
Q1 2014	$11B		$9.4B – $14B	+3.8%
Q2 2014	$11B		$9.8B – $13B	+0.3%
Q3 2014	$11B		$9.4B – $14B	+1.0%
Q4 2014	$11B		$9.5B – $14B	-0.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lockheed Martin Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0048	+0.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0351	+3.5%	+3.5% above trend	4
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9854	-1.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0267	+2.7%	In line with trend	3

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 16 quarters. A rising multiplier means each dollar of spending drives more revenue over time, signaling improving efficiency. A falling multiplier can indicate market saturation or rising cost-to-acquire.
Current SG&A multiplier: -0.0119

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) outperformed the fixed-coefficient ARDL on holdout validation (-0.7% error vs ARDL, R² = -0.030), so this report uses the GAM for its quarterly forecasts.

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