What is MA's forecasted revenue?

Mastercard Incorporated is forecasted to generate $42.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +21.4% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MA revenue forecast model?

The model has 6.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $9.4B versus the actual $9.3B.

Mastercard Incorporated MA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Mastercard Incorporated's latest quarterly revenue is $9.3B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $42.6B across the next four quarters (+21.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses G&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and G&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$42.6B

+21.4% YoY

G&A Elasticity

1.00x

Training Fit

6.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $9.43B vs the actual $9.28B — an error of 1.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: The current filings use G&A (GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense). Spending estimates refer to this expense measure, not separately reported SG&A.

Note: Mastercard Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$9.43B	$9.28B	$7.31B–$12.16B	+15.9%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$9.96B		$7.53B–$13.19B	+15.8%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$10.56B		$7.71B–$14.46B	+19.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$10.78B		$7.67B–$15.16B	+28.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$11.29B		$7.75B–$16.43B	+21.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mastercard Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9792	-2.1%	In line with trend	18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0188	+1.9%	In line with trend	18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0425	+4.2%	+4.2% above trend	18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9814	-1.9%	In line with trend	18

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current G&A elasticity: 0.4444x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 1.6%.

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