Mercadolibre, Inc. MELI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 32 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mercadolibre, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $47B, a +63.3% year-over-year change, based on 32 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Mercadolibre, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-1.27x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$47.2B
+63.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-1.27x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.81x
Model Accuracy
2.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $8.6B vs the actual $8.8B — an error of 2.1%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $8.6B | $8.8B | $8.0B – $9.2B | +41.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $9.1B | $8.3B – $10.0B | +53.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $11B | $9.8B – $12B | +61.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $12B | $11B – $14B | +65.6% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $15B | $13B – $17B | +69.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mercadolibre, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.995 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0193 | +1.9% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9878 | -1.2% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0068 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 7 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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