Mplx Lp MPLX
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mplx Lp has a forecasted full-year revenue of $15B, a +15.4% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.48x). The ARDL model has 10.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 10.9% MAPE, the model captures Mplx Lp's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.48x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$15.0B
+15.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.48x
Model Accuracy
10.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.7B vs the actual $3.3B — an error of 12.7%.
Note:
Mplx Lp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.7B | $3.3B | $2.6B – $5.1B | +19.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.7B | $2.3B – $5.9B | +17.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | $2.1B – $6.6B | +23.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.8B | $1.9B – $7.4B | +4.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.9B | $1.8B – $8.1B | +18.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mplx Lp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9904 | -1.0% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9663 | -3.4% | -3.4% below trend | 12 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0346 | +3.5% | +3.5% above trend | 12 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0365 | +3.6% | +3.6% above trend | 12 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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