What is MTCH's forecasted revenue?

Match Group, Inc. is forecasted to generate $3.52B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +0.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MTCH revenue forecast model?

The model has 0.8% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $0.9B versus the actual $0.9B.

Match Group, Inc. MTCH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Match Group, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $853M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $3.5B across the next four quarters (+0.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$3.52B

+0.3% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.56x

SG&A Elasticity

0.70x

Training Fit

0.8% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $861.1M vs the actual $853.1M — an error of 0.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$861.1M	$853.1M	$841.3M–$881.3M	-0.3%	✓ In range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$850.2M		$822.7M–$878.6M	-7.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$838.9M		$805.8M–$873.3M	-4.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$901.1M		$860.1M–$943.9M	+4.3%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$928.8M		$881.8M–$978.3M	+8.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Match Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9996	-0.0%	In line with trend	7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0028	+0.3%	In line with trend	6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.0042	+0.4%	In line with trend	6
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9981	-0.2%	In line with trend	6

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 30 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3575x • R&D elasticity: -0.1725x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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