What is MU's forecasted revenue?

Micron Technology, Inc. is forecasted to generate $177.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +33.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the MU revenue forecast model?

The model has 8.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $52B versus the actual $54B.

Micron Technology, Inc. MU

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-09-03

Micron Technology, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $54.2B for the period ending 2026-09-03. The model projects $178B across the next four quarters (+33.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 3.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-09-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$177.6B

+33.3% YoY

R&D Elasticity

1.30x

SG&A Elasticity

2.04x

Training Fit

8.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $52.33B vs the actual $54.23B — an error of 3.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-03	$52.33B	$54.23B	$41.45B–$66.06B	+362.5%	✓ In range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-03	$52.59B		$37.83B–$73.11B	+285.5%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-03	$47.35B		$31.63B–$70.89B	+98.5%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-03	$41.81B		$26.23B–$66.62B	+0.8%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-09-03	$35.85B		$21.29B–$60.36B	-33.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Micron Technology, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec)	0.9872	-1.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Jan–Mar)	0.9555	-4.4%	-4.4% below trend	16
FQ3 (Apr–Jun)	1.0198	+2.0%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep)	1.0031	+0.3%	In line with trend	16

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 3.7232x • R&D elasticity: -0.5862x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Technology

HUBS CRM AMD PTC FFIV JBL VRSN DELL