What is NDAQ's forecasted revenue?

Nasdaq, Inc. is forecasted to generate $7.90B in FY revenue, representing -4.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NDAQ revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 5.8% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.0B versus the actual $2.1B.

Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by strong operating leverage from SG&A activities, with $1 of SG&A spending expected to generate about $34.75 in long-run revenue. The latest quarterly revenue came in at $2.124 billion. A linear model trained on 66 quarters of data yields a full-year forecast of $7.9 billion, representing a 4.3% decline year over year, with holdout accuracy of 5.6% (predicted $2.0B vs actual $2.1B) and an overall MAPE of 5.8%. This suggests meaningful cost-to-revenue leverage but a modest near-term headwind to topline, underscoring the importance of cost discipline and revenue mix in supporting the outlook.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.8% MAPE), suggesting Nasdaq, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $34.75 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$7.90B

-4.3% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$34.75 per $1

Model Accuracy

5.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.0B vs the actual $2.1B — an error of 5.6%.

Note: Nasdaq, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$2.0B	$2.1B	$1.8B – $2.2B	-1.3%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$2.0B		$1.8B – $2.2B	-3.7%
Q3 2026	$2.0B		$1.7B – $2.3B	-4.8%
Q4 2026	$2.0B		$1.7B – $2.3B	+0.5%
Q1 2027	$1.9B		$1.6B – $2.3B	-9.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nasdaq, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9645	-3.5%	-3.5% below trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0466	+4.7%	+4.7% above trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0147	+1.5%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0019	+0.2%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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