Nextera Energy, Inc. NEE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is forecast to grow about 6.6% year over year to roughly $27.5 billion, supported by a resilient mix of regulated earnings, renewable deployments, and recurring services. Our econometric model, with fixed coefficients, shows that this growth is increasingly driven by operating leverage rather than incremental SG&A spend, as the SG&A multiplier has fallen from 0.78 to 0.34 over the period. The model's track record is solid, with a 5.2% mean absolute percentage error and a holdout miss of 1.0% (predicted $5.9B, actual $6.0B). Key risk: execution timing of large capital programs and potential regulatory or policy shifts that could dampen pricing power or project returns.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.2% MAPE), suggesting Nextera Energy, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.40 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$27.5B
+6.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.40 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.9B vs the actual $6.0B — an error of 1.0%.
Note: Nextera Energy, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

NEE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $5.9B $6.0B $5.4B – $6.5B +10.0% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $6.3B $5.4B – $7.1B +4.2%
Q3 2026 $7.0B $6.0B – $8.0B +8.8%
Q4 2026 $7.7B $6.5B – $8.8B +3.7%
Q1 2027 $6.6B $5.3B – $7.9B +10.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nextera Energy, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0219 +2.2% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9532 -4.7% -4.7% below trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9928 -0.7% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9831 -1.7% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

NEE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Spending Efficiency Over Time

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks how the link between spending and revenue has evolved over 70 quarters. A rising multiplier means each dollar of spending drives more revenue over time, signaling improving efficiency. A falling multiplier can indicate market saturation or rising cost-to-acquire.
Current SG&A multiplier: 0.343

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 70 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.