Nisource Inc. NI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 42 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Nisource Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.0B, a -3.0% year-over-year change, based on 42 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($0.43 per $1). The ARDL model has 13.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 13.1% MAPE, the model captures Nisource Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $0.43 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$5.01B
-3.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.43 per $1
Model Accuracy
13.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.4B vs the actual $1.4B — an error of 0.1%.
Note:
Nisource Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | $1.4B | $1.4B | $0.9B – $1.8B | -5.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2020 | $1.7B | $1.0B – $2.3B | -11.3% | ||
| Q3 2020 | $1.1B | $0.3B – $1.9B | +7.2% | ||
| Q4 2020 | $1.0B | $0.1B – $1.8B | +2.8% | ||
| Q1 2021 | $1.3B | $0.3B – $2.3B | -3.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Nisource Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9933 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.957 | -4.3% | -4.3% below trend | 10 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0893 | +8.9% | +8.9% above trend | 9 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9886 | -1.1% | In line with trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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