Northrop Grumman Corp /De/ NOC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Northrop Grumman Corp /De/ has a forecasted full-year revenue of $43B, a +2.2% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($9.43 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.1% MAPE), suggesting Northrop Grumman Corp /De/'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $9.43 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$42.9B
+2.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$9.43 per $1
Model Accuracy
3.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $12B — an error of 6.1%.
Note:
Northrop Grumman Corp /De/ does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $11B | $12B | $10B – $12B | +2.9% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | $9.6B – $12B | +12.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $11B | $9.6B – $12B | +4.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $11B | $9.2B – $12B | +1.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $11B | $9.3B – $12B | -7.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Northrop Grumman Corp /De/'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0065 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0088 | +0.9% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9843 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0043 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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