What is NXT's forecasted revenue?

Nextpower Inc. is forecasted to generate $1.38B in FY revenue, representing -59.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the NXT revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.2% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $652B versus the actual $909B.

Nextpower Inc. NXT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Nextpower Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.4B, a -59.0% year-over-year change, based on 13 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 3.70x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.2% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.2% MAPE), suggesting Nextpower Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.63x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 3.70x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$1.38B

-59.0% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.63x

SG&A Elasticity

3.70x

Model Accuracy

3.2% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $652B vs the actual $909B — an error of 28.3%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($909M) came in 28% above the spending-based forecast ($652M). This suggests that Nextpower Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$652B	$909B	$601B – $707B	+2.5%	✗ Outside range
Q2 2026	$401B		$357B – $450B	-41.0%
Q3 2026	$284B		$246B – $327B	-67.1%
Q4 2026	$286B		$242B – $336B	-68.5%
Q1 2027	$406B		$338B – $487B	-55.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nextpower Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0135	+1.3%	In line with trend	4
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0208	+2.1%	In line with trend	4
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0059	+0.6%	In line with trend	3

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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